How to Tell a Good Decision From a Lucky One
An excellent decision and a lucky one leave the same evidence: a win. Tell them apart and you stop crediting luck as judgment. That's counterfactual thinking
How to Improve Your Weak Signal Judgment
Noticing a trend is easy and almost worthless. Predicting which one reshapes a market, and acting early, is where innovation pays.
How to Improve Your Second-Order Thinking Skills
The most expensive failures don't announce themselves. They start as weak signals somebody noticed once and explained away. Second-order thinking is how you stop being that somebody.
Ideas Aren’t Getting Harder to Find. They’re Getting Harder to Approve
Every research-driven industry looks like it’s running out of ideas. It isn’t. It’s turning them down.
How to Improve Your Inversion Thinking Skills
Most innovation tools teach you how to win. Inversion thinking teaches you how to lose on purpose, so you catch the failure while you can still change course.
How to Improve Your First Principles Thinking Skills
First principles thinking is the most talked-about skill in innovation. It's also the most misunderstood. Here's what it actually looks like.
I'm Too Good at Keeping Busy. So Are You.
A confession about deep work, deferred priorities, and the three tripwires I built when I stopped trusting myself.
How to Overcome Expert Bias
Three checks that keep you in control of your own thinking when experts are in the room.
How to Overcome Confirmation Bias
Stop Cognitive Bias from Ruining Your Decisions
What I Saw McKinsey Get Wrong at HP And Couldn’t Stop
Mindjacking doesn’t always come from outside. Sometimes you watch it happen in real time and still can’t stop it.
