How to Recognize Failure Patterns: How HP Quit and Apple Won
A partner named exactly how HP would lose, four years early. HP quit. Apple didn't. Here are the four failure patterns behind both calls.
HP Needs to Stop Before It Can Grow
A response to Mark Vena's "HP Needs More Than a New CEO," and my second letter to HP's board.
How to Improve Your Abductive Reasoning Skills: The Sherlock Holmes Method
School taught you deductive and inductive reasoning. The third kind, abductive reasoning, is where new ideas come from, and it is the one AI can't do.
The Customers Who Walked Away
Forty-two killer questions that survived years of testing, and the three places to aim them.
How One Word Steers Your Answer
The anatomy of a bad question, and what makes one great.
What Half of 13 Reveals About Your Thinking
The power of questions comes down to how your brain works: it answers a question the moment you hear it, whether or not you want it to.
Retirement 3.0
My third retirement is different. On Jan 1, 2027 I retire as CableLabs CEO and hand the reins to Mark Bridges. Why now, and what's next?
How to Tell a Good Decision From a Lucky One
An excellent decision and a lucky one leave the same evidence: a win. Tell them apart and you stop crediting luck as judgment. That's counterfactual thinking
How to Improve Your Weak Signal Judgment
Noticing a trend is easy and almost worthless. Predicting which one reshapes a market, and acting early, is where innovation pays.
How to Improve Your Second-Order Thinking Skills
The most expensive failures don't announce themselves. They start as weak signals somebody noticed once and explained away. Second-order thinking is how you stop being that somebody.
