Predictions
These essays on predictions share the process and outcome of making predictions, as well as the lessons I have learned along the way. Predictive models can help us better understand our world and plan for the future, but they are only as useful as their accuracy. The accuracy of a predictive model is determined by a variety of factors, such as information quality, the complexity of the world around us, the pace of innovation, and more.
A Prediction Of The Near Future (Vision Video)
Vision videos are a great way to share a prediction of the future. I’ve written before about the vision video’s that I’ve been part of including Roku’s Reward (2006) and Corning “A Day Made of Glass” (2011). Today, we are releasing a new vision video, The Near Future Network, that tells the story of
Finding Bubbles and Predicting the Burst
Many innovators and entrepreneurs have dozens of ideas every day for the perfect new business. They’re sure that this is the next big thing, that this idea will outlast the competition. Unfortunately, some of those ideas may fall prey to the “bubble” problem: they begin quickly, expand rapidly, and
200 Years of Great Ideas and Hard Work Led To the Overnight Success of Your Smartphone
As I discussed in a previous post, the basic components of success are the idea, hard work, timing, and maybe a little bit of luck. Here, we’ll look at how that formula worked to create the massive success of the modern cell phone. Success As you walk down the street in any major city in […]
What innovation can you leverage from military bombing to kill bacteria and viruses in the human body?
Gizmodo recently reported that some researchers at the University of Southern Denmark in Odense are working on a new way to attack bacteria and viruses in the human body using buckyballs. A buckyball is a molecule that contains 60 carbon atoms arranged in the shape of a football. While scientists ha
Predicting The Future With A Vision Video
Predicting the future is not for the faint of heart. It can be tricky to know what and when something is going to happen. It’s not enough to just have an opinion of what the future holds but you have to have a way to show the future so others can see and respond to […]
Shrek’s law of innovation means blockbuster movies
As a trustee of the Computer History Museum and having worked closely with Jeffrey Katzenberg (CEO) and Ed Leonard (CTO) of DreamWorks Animation, I was asked to be the moderator for an event titled “The Technology of Animation”. I got to play Jay Leno for ~90 minutes and interview them in front of
8 Conditions of Technology Development
I was recently going through some old files and notebooks and came across a paper I wrote during my sophomore year in college (Spring 1980). The paper was for a course on the history of technology that I titled, Conditions of Technology Development. The professor, who happened to be the Assistant
What is the role of the CTO?
I was recently interviewed by Rich Karlgaard, Publisher of Forbes on the role of the CTO and how it balances the near term needs of the organization while also making sure that there is a robust pipeline of ideas to meet the future needs of customers. Rich also gets me to talk about what devices […
Are You Part Of The Gray Wave? If Not Yet, You Will Be!
For the last few weeks, my wife has been back in Cincinnati helping my Grandmother who just turned 95 last week, still lives in the same house she raised her kids in and still cooks and cleans. Whenever I’m in Cincinnati for business, I have to stay at the house with her else she will kick my b** —
3 Interesting Innovation Competitions
In a recent set of tweets, I commented on the growing number of innovation competitions. A number of you responded by sending me a list of competitions that you found interesting. If you have more competitions, post them as comments below or send them via email. Given the challenges that are faci
